US tariff policies could reshape the global packaging industry, with potential impacts reaching into the tens of billions of dollars, according to a new white paper from Smithers, a global authority on the packaging industry.

The White Paper, “Impact of Tariffs on Packaging,” projects that global packaging demand will reach $1.52 trillion by 2030, but warns that growth could slow by up to 0.5% under pessimistic scenarios.

Global packaging demand is set to hit $1.52 trillion by 2030, with growth rates of 3.8% in the Smithers baseline scenario; it may rise to 3.9% in the optimistic scenario or drop to 3.3% in the pessimistic scenario.

Tariffs are expected to impact US economic growth more than the global market in the short term, but a recovery is expected in later years.

Key Findings

• Depending on the scenario, US packaging consumption in 2030 could range from $255.4 billion to $279.6 billion, a swing of over $24 billion driven by tariff-related uncertainty.
• Segments such as rigid plastics and flexible packaging, which are heavily reliant on imports, are expected to face the sharpest cost increases, although demand remains resilient due to their essential role in food and healthcare.
• Despite economic pressures, healthcare packaging is forecast to grow at 3.1% CAGR in the US, while cosmetics packaging benefits from the “lipstick effect,” with consumers maintaining spending on small luxuries.

Brands and converters are increasingly adopting a “Plus One” strategy, diversifying their sourcing beyond China to mitigate future trade risks, with Southeast Asia and Latin America emerging as key alternatives.